Housing is, without doubt, the most cross-cutting and least resolved issue of our time. In Portugal, the debate has for years been hampered by its fragmented nature. We frequently find ourselves trapped in ideological trenches that pit the State against the Market, forgetting that housing is, above all, a right and an essential social infrastructure for people's lives.
On 16 December 2025, Europe took a decisive step in consolidating this vision: housing ceased to be seen merely as a market or a social policy and came to be regarded as essential infrastructure. This is a profound and strategic paradigm shift.
Redefining what adequate housing means
For decades, the concept of adequate housing was reduced to basic indicators of building habitability or access to home ownership. Today, that definition is no longer sufficient. Fair and contemporary housing must be defined by three dimensions: economic affordability, functional adequacy, and stability.
In Portugal, we face the phenomenon of families earning incomes that exclude them from classic social housing — traditionally reserved for very low-income households — yet who lack the financial capacity to meet the prices of the open market, which are often disconnected from actual production costs.
In today's world, adequate housing must meet the needs of those caught in the middle. For this segment, adequate housing is defined by the cost-rental model. Rather than setting rents at the maximum the market will bear, the value is calculated on the basis of the real cost of producing, financing, and managing the property, with a limited margin.
This is not merely a question of square metres, but of predictability. A home whose rent does not consume more than 30% of disposable income is a home that allows spending in other sectors, enables savings, and supports investment in children's education. The new European paradigm therefore focuses on creating a "third pillar" that occupies the empty space between subsidised social housing and the speculative market.
Market, State, and Third Sector: the necessary balance
The mistake, until now, has been to expect the market to resolve middle-class housing shortages without regulation, or for the State to build everything on its own with limited budgets.
My position is clear: there is no "silver bullet" to resolve this crisis. What we need is a collaborative ecosystem in which the balance between the public and private sectors drives the solution.
The role of the State must evolve from "builder" to "guarantor and regulator". This is where the concept of treating housing as one treats a water or energy network comes in: regulated infrastructure, offering a return to investors, but with a clear public mission.
It is essential that the State makes use of European instruments and community funding to create conditions of confidence for long-term investors. To achieve affordable housing, it is crucial to attract capital that accepts moderate and predictable returns in exchange for stability.
In this context, Recommendation 54 of the Housing Advisory Board is equally clear: we must allow returns for investors and operators, but with a transparent cap and a commitment that surpluses are reinvested in the housing stock itself — whether in maintenance, energy efficiency improvements, or the creation of new dwellings.
Furthermore, we must not overlook the role of cooperatives and other housing models, which make a vital social and economic contribution. The limited-profit and mandatory reinvestment model is the only one capable of creating a structurally affordable housing stock.
This balance avoids the logic of "buy cheap, sell dear" and replaces it with the professional management of assets that generate social value and economic stability over decades.
The Portuguese case
Let us now look specifically at the Portuguese case, where the housing crisis is often presented as an absolute shortage of homes. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the problem is, to a large extent, one of connectivity and territorial planning. I note, regrettably, considerable resistance on the part of those who hold the instruments to make land available for housing. Without land, there are no homes.
We also have a country in which housing and mobility are not aligned and are planned in isolation. Living outside the major urban centres of Lisbon and Porto cannot mean social isolation or being condemned to hours in traffic. A serious housing policy is inseparable from a sound transport infrastructure policy. If we create fast, reliable, and sustainable transport networks, the "habitable territory" expands and the concept of the "periphery" dissolves.
Affordable housing must be the anchor of territorial planning. By promoting the development of housing schemes in urban expansion zones served by efficient mobility, we relieve pressure on historic city centres and foster territorial cohesion. Fiscal and planning incentives should reward not only those who build homes, but those who build them in alignment with urban life: close to transport, services, and leisure.
What can we do about the future of housing?
The future of housing in Portugal will be defined by our capacity to achieve scale and to embrace the green transition, the technological revolution, and sociological change.
The European Commission estimates that 6.5 million new homes will be needed over the next ten years. This requires an annual investment of €153 billion, totalling approximately €1.5 trillion over a decade. We will not reach these figures using traditional, craft-based construction methods. The industrialisation of construction and the use of Artificial Intelligence in asset management are fundamental to achieving scale and reducing error.
Moreover, the housing of the future must be sustainable by design. When we treat housing as long-term infrastructure, the incentive to invest in energy efficiency changes radically. It is no longer a matter of building to sell and passing energy costs on to the owner; it is about building and maintaining an asset that will be efficient for many years to come.
In short, housing is finally coming to be seen as the silent heart of European and national development.
For Portugal, the challenge is to move from diagnosis to execution. We need a model that does not disappear when subsidies run out or when the market overheats. We need a vision that understands that a stable, fair, and predictable home is the greatest driver of productivity and social peace a country can have.
We are ready to bring the knowledge, the partners, and the investment. The future of our housing — and, by extension, of our country — depends on the courage to make the home the central pillar of our democratic infrastructure.
— in 108 Vozes pela Habitação – O que nos abriga é também o que nos constrói [Voices for Housing – What shelters us is also what shapes us]. Editors: Oficina do Livro; ISCTE Executive Education, 2026